Jane's Intelligence Review - October 2012

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OCTOBER 2012 VOL 24 • ISSUE 10 IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review The magazine of IHS Jane’s Military and Security Assessments Intelligence Centre ihs.com/janes Final countdown? Colombia talks to FARC ins... Read more
SAVE UP TO £61 on an annual subscription to IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly • Keep track of ongoing military geopolitical activity. • Obtain industry-leading defence news and features every week. • Receive ... Read more
IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review CONTENTS Volume 24 | Issue 10 | October 2012 20 34 48 Terrorism & Insurgency 14 Bedouin jihadists IHS Jane’s reports on the Egyptian govern-ment’s 8 Peace in his time? C... Read more
COUNTRY RISK WATCH For further in-depth coverage go to ihs.com/janes US ambassador to Libya dies in attack on Benghazi consulate October 2012, Volume 24, Number 10 Editorial Editor: Matthew Clements D... Read more
For further in-depth coverage go to ihs.com/janes COUNTRY RISK WATCH Opposition victory in Venezuelan presidential election would lead to civil war, says Chávez DIEGO MOYA-OCAMPOS First filed online: ... Read more
COUNTRY RISK WATCH For further in-depth coverage go to ihs.com/janes Pakistan human rights report finds risk of Taliban war in Balochistan Somali president survives attempted assassination Weapons wer... Read more
For further in-depth coverage go to ihs.com/janes COUNTRY RISK WATCH Armed clashes on Russian-Georgian border kill 14 as Tbilisi cracks down on ‘instability’ who were later freed unharmed. One of them... Read more
Colombian counter-narcotics police destroy a cocaine laboratory operated by the insurgent FARC in Puerto Concordia, Colombia, on 25 January 2012. PA: 1456852 8 | Jane’s Intelligence Review October 201... Read more
FOCUS Peace in his time? Colombian president talks to insurgents Following weeks of mounting speculation, President Juan Manuel Santos has stated that his government will enter negotiations with the F... Read more
FOCUS Londoño (alias Timochenko) has confirmed the group’s willingness to stay the term until a deal is achieved. Five decades of struggle The FARC was, and remains in theory, an ideological organisat... Read more
FOCUS FARC attacks 2008-2012 © 2012 IHS: 1456479 50 Fatalities Attacks 40 30 20 10 0 Jan 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Source: Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centr... Read more
FOCUS further concrete proposals on rural develop-ment FARC insurgents leave the scene of a clash with troops in Jambalo, southern Colombia, 12 July 2012. PA: 1456854 ready and waiting. Outside develo... Read more
FOCUS Cuba will act as guarantors, with Chile and Venezuela providing “accompaniment”, while a range of other international voices – includ-ing dialogue to develop with minimal leakage over six months... Read more
TERRORISM & INSURGENCY jihadists Bedouin The rise of extremism in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula Since the Arab Spring, jihadists based in Egypt’s strategic Sinai peninsula have posed a growing threat to the... Read more
TERRORISM & INSURGENCY such as Al-Tawhid wal Jihad have emerged, which recruit from among Bedouin youth and subscribe to the transnational ideol-ogy Hamas security official, who spoke to IHS Jane’s on... Read more
TERRORISM & INSURGENCY border with Sinai in a bid to stop such flows. According to an IDF source familiar with the project, the design of the wall – which includes various electronic surveillance meas... Read more
TERRORISM & INSURGENCY At a military funeral in Cairo on 7 August 2012, a mourner throws flowers towards the coffin of one of 16 Egyptian soldiers killed in a 5 August assault by suspected jihadists o... Read more
TERRORISM & INSURGENCY Israeli soldiers look at the wreckage of an Egyptian armoured personnel carrier on 6 August following a clash with jihadists . PA: 1339624 denunciation of killing the soldiers i... Read more
ADVERTISING AND SUBSCRIPTIONS ADVERTISING OFFICES JAPAN: Carly Litchfield, see UK MIDDLE EAST: Carly Litchfield PAKISTAN: Carly Litchfield POLAND: Carly Litchfield RUSSIA: Anatoly Tomashevich, 3/1, ap... Read more
TERRORISM & INSURGENCY Abyan stratagem AQAP withdraws from Yemeni governorate Against the wishes of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula pursued a territorial strategy in Yemen. Iona Cra... Read more
TERRORISM & INSURGENCY offensive targeting AQAP. In mid-June, fol-lowing heavy fighting in Zinjibar and on the outskirts of the other towns held by Ansar al- Sharia, the jihadists abandoned their posi... Read more
TERRORISM & INSURGENCY no security,” the imam of the central mosque in Jaar, Saleem Mohammed al-Subayhi, told IHS Jane’s after the town was recaptured in June. However, in the foreseeable future this ... Read more
TERRORISM & INSURGENCY in Hadhramaut, Aden and Sanaa. Within Abyan itself, the focus of AQAP’s campaign in recent weeks has been the Popu-lar Committees. Notably, on 4 August, 45 men were killed by a ... Read more
SCENARIOS Power struggle Turkey’s political future Turkey’s first ever presidential elections will take place in 2014 and could see the country’s parliamentary system replaced with a presidential one.... Read more
SCENARIOS applied to Gül and that his term would expire in August 2012. Erdoğan originally planned to persuade Gül not to stand for a second term and to begin drafting a new pro-presidential constitut... Read more
SCENARIOS the inculcation of Islamic values through the education system and encouraging more con-servative lifestyles through censorship of the media and large tax increases on items such as alcohol.... Read more
SCENARIOS GDP grew by 8.5%. However, the slowdown was expected to result in an improvement in the current account deficit, which is forecast to shrink to around 7% of GDP by the end of 2012, compared ... Read more
SCENARIOS Turkish Kurds chant slogans during the Nowruz celebrations in the southeastern Turkish city of Diyarbakir, on 21 March 2008. PA: 1456850 Scenarios There are various possible outcomes as to h... Read more
SCENARIOS Scenario 3: Gül defeats Erdoğan and remains president, but under a presidential system Probability Low Turkey would continue to become more Under this scenario, Erdoğan would autocratic than... Read more
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Operation outsource Private security firms target ‘narco-militancy’ According to the US, radical militancy and the global drug trade are interlinked. Alex Chitty examines the in... Read more
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY USD2 billion of this allocation was focused on border security and other domestic work, the remainder was to be split between the Department of State (DoS), the DoD and the Drug... Read more
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY History of the CNTPO Known as the DoD Counterdrug Technology Development Program Office (CDTDPO) from its inception in 1996 to 2003, the CNTPO has, according to Lt Col Gregory, ... Read more
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY officials, who “relied on independently devel-oped province in southern Afghanistan. While the use of such teams in combat situations has slowed following controversy around the... Read more
STATE STABILITY Insecurity nexus Unrest in remote Tajikistan Clashes in the remote eastern regions of Tajikistan have raised fears of wider destabilisation in the country. IHS Jane’s examines the comp... Read more
STATE STABILITY The security operation, according to Tajik media sources, was undertaken by elements of the elite Presidential Guard, along with forces from the Ministry of the Interior (which include... Read more
STATE STABILITY the simple reason that it does not have the capability to comprehensively move against these former UTO commanders and establish its control across the country. The main obstacle in un... Read more
STATE STABILITY Tajikistan © 2012 IHS: 1456478 KAZAKHSTAN Khujand UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN Sughd CHINA Rasht valleyRasht valley TAJIKISTAN Dushanbe KEY Gorno-Badakhshan Capital Towns Border crossing poin... Read more
STATE STABILITY that the IMU was responsible for the Septem-ber during the civil war, and there are likely to be former IMU members in places such as Gorno-Badakhshan who may retain links to these for... Read more
STATE STABILITY drugs from Afghanistan through Central Asia into Russia, and this concern has also devel-oped better terms for the lease. Rahmon demanded “respect” from Russia during further talks on ... Read more
STATE STABILITY Election friction Kenya fears poll violence repeat The consequences of Kenya’s recent election disasters are shaping preparations for the country’s next attempt in March 2013 – for bet... Read more
STATE STABILITY young Kenyans, who had largely voted along traditional tribal lines, took up arms against opposition tribes, beginning a cycle of ethni-cally This time Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent presi... Read more
STATE STABILITY Kenyatta, he has held the positions of deputy prime minister and minister of finance since 2008. In November 2011, Forbes magazine estimated his personal fortune to be USD500 million. ... Read more
STATE STABILITY candidate championing job creation over their own ethnic allegiances. Consequently, politi-cal debate tends to denigrate the character of opponents, while the horse-trading and formati... Read more
SERIOUS & ORGANISED CRIME Toronto targets Canada fears return to the ‘summer of the gun’ Gang violence has returned to Toronto, triggering memories of the 2005 spike in gun-related killings. Tony McCu... Read more
SERIOUS & ORGANISED CRIME Drugs trafficking, particularly cocaine and marijuana, is a major source of revenue for organised crime gangs in Canada. PA: 1457009 According to Toronto police, after rising... Read more
SERIOUS & ORGANISED CRIME number of shootings that had occurred by August 2010 (157) and fewer than the number to August 2009 (177). The number of injuries from shootings by August 2012 (93) was 50% u... Read more
SERIOUS & ORGANISED CRIME continued. “Unlike a shotgun or hunting rifle, a handgun has no practical use except to kill a human being... These weapons should have no place in Canadian society apart fro... Read more
PROLIFERATION & PROCUREMENT Rocket Iran’s satellite launch programme Fuelled by fears of a possible Iranian nuclear weapons programme and associated delivery platforms, tensions in the Middle East are... Read more
PROLIFERATION & PROCUREMENT dates passed, no further announcements were made for almost a month when, on 12 October 2011, Deputy Minister of Science Mehdinejad-Norui stated: “The launch was not public... Read more
PROLIFERATION & PROCUREMENT Iran’s Khomeini space centre Unidentified complex Started in early 2010, the complex’s 50m x 50m three-level tiered building was nearly complete as of August 2012. What mak... Read more
PROLIFERATION & PROCUREMENT © 2012 IHS: 1462982 18 May 2012 14 Aug 2012 December 2011, the colour of the bottom of the flame trench has changed from a concrete grey to a stream of black liquid running... Read more
PROLIFERATION & PROCUREMENT continued from page 49 18 May 2012 5 days before planned launch 21 June 2012 30 days after planned launch still not changed in imagery from 14 August 2012. At the Safir lau... Read more
PROLIFERATION & PROCUREMENT ing successful space launches into a weapons capability, to gain greater influence inside and outside the region, is a real possibility. In an effort to allay these fears, ... Read more
CHINA WATCH PA: 1456848 Island hopping Territorial disputes muddy the waters in Asia Disagreements between China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines over maritime and island sovereignty h... Read more
CHINA WATCH as saying shortly afterwards that Tokyo was considering not extending a USD70 billion currency swap agreement with South Korea when it expires in October. Furthermore, South Korea and Japa... Read more
RESOURCE WATCH Khaki green US military looks to alternative energy The political war over the US armed forces’ energy policy is heating up as a need for austerity is putting increased pressure on mili... Read more
RESOURCE WATCH dispute created considerable problems – as well as increased costs – for the US military. As a result, it has become an increasing priority to ensure self-sufficiency at operational bas... Read more
INTERVIEW Daniel Benjamin US Department of State Co-ordinator for Counterterrorism NAME POSITION BACKGROUND and the death of former Libyan leader Daniel Benjamin was sworn in as United States Ambassad... Read more
SAVE UP TO £67 on an annual subscription to IHS Jane’s Islamic Affairs Analyst FEBRUARY 2012 jiaa.janes.com ihs.com Contents Cover Story Campaign to release UK Muslim divides Islamists 1 Africa Shabab... Read more
SAVE UP TO £67 on an annual subscription to IHS Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency Monitor 􀁂􀀂􀁖􀀎􀀫 􀅝􀆃􀄜􀅝 􀃵􀅒􀃪􀂛􀄪􀃵􀁼􀄉􀂼􀅄􀄪􀂛􀄒􀄃􀀮􀀫􀁚 􀀸􀁼􀄉􀂼􀄹􀅄 􀁠􀂼􀄼􀄼􀄒􀄼􀃪􀅄􀄃􀂇 􀀮􀄉􀅄􀅟􀄼􀃖􀂼􀄉􀂛􀅺 􀁂􀄒... Read more